Week In Review: Hot Opening Half Yields Paint-By-Numbers Classic

The number that best sums up this year's Breeders' Cup is :44.96. That's the sizzling opening half-mile split for the GI Classic, and 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) utilized it to the utmost advantage on Saturday, propelling himself to the winner's circle with one of his customary, locomotive-like late kicks that had come up just shy of victory in three previous attempts at 10 furlongs.

As a relentless long-strider with a penchant for leaning in and being a magnet for trip trouble during his stretch runs, Sierra Leone was allowed to drift up to almost 7-1 in the betting for the Classic, with the public's respect for his prowess blunted by three straight beaten-fave tries that had resulted in a third, a second, and a third in the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and the GI Travers S.

Prior to those close-but-no-cigar efforts, Sierra Leone had similarly rated near the back in the GI Kentucky Derby. Advancing with authority entering the far turn, he gathered momentum weaving through the 20-horse pack, then got stalled behind a wall of rivals three-eighths out.

Eight wide off the turn while building serious late-Derby torque, this $2.3 million FTSAUG yearling was leaning all over Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) the entire length of the stretch run, which culminated in a frenzied three-way photo with staying-on speedster Mystik Dan (Goldencents) a nose better than Sierra Leone, with Forever Young another nose back in third.

Trainer Chad Brown then spent the better part of the late spring and summer trying to figure out how to keep Sierra Leone from being his own worst enemy in the stretch, employing both a new steering bit in the colt's mouth and a new jockey on his back (from Tyler Gaffalione to Flavien Prat) from the Belmont Stakes onward.

Although those tweaks–plus some natural seasoning that comes with maturity–likely contributed to a more polished version of Sierra Leone staying straight and focused in the Breeders' Cup, the overly hot first half-mile of the Classic is what truly sealed the deal in his favor.

In eight previous races ranging from eight to 10 furlongs, Sierra Leone had compiled a respectable 3-3-2 mark. But his off-the-tailgate style had never been afforded any opening half-mile faster than :46.48, regardless of the distance. That one comparatively quick split was when Sierra Leone rallied from ninth to capture the nine-furlong GI Blue Grass S. back in April.

Sierra Leone had been winless since, and even as his races grew longer, the paces were generally slower.

In Sierra Leone's three previous attempts at 10 furlongs (Derby, Belmont, Travers), the half-mile fractions into which he tried to close ranged from :46.63 to :48.10. All three of those races were won by horses forcing the issue near the front.

The Classic yielded not only unexpectedly swift early fractions, but an unexpected pacemaker who set them. The 42-1 Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), who had finished second in last year's edition of this race by stalking from midpack, established himself at the head of affairs at Del Mar when Arthur's Ride (Tapit), a 13-1 shot who projected to be the controlling speed, got hooked wide into the first turn.

Sierra Leone (left) outkicks Fierceness (right) to win the Classic | Breeders' Cup/Eclipse Sportswire

The speed-centric 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), bet down late to 2.8-1 favoritism, secured a no-excuse stalking spot just to the outside and right behind Derma Sotogake, contributing pressure that helped establish an ambitious opening quarter of :22.43.

Behind the percolating pace, the versatile Forever Young (4-1) latched onto a coveted ground-saving position at the fence after breaking uneventfully from the inside gate. 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief) set up shop widest on the backstretch and seemed very much in it to win it while tracking the action from fifth at 15-1.

Even at this early stage of the Classic, fellow 'Rising Star' and 7-2 shot City of Troy (Justify), the Irish-based turf titan, was already displaying signs of discomfort that indicated his first race on dirt was not going to be a productive one.

City of Troy kept edging back through the pack until he more or less shared a spot with by-design laggard Sierra Leone, whose body language suggested that he, by contrast, was well within his comfort zone three or four horses from last behind an unsustainable second quarter-mile split of :22.53.

At the 3 1/2-furlong mark, Fierceness took over in hand, although his seizure of the lead was more of a result of Derma Sotogake capitulating rather than Fierceness unleashing a decisive move.

The pack of stalkers behind the 2-year-old champ shuffled a bit, but the true eye-catching move was uncoiling from farther back, as Prat asked Sierra Leone for a higher gear that the colt willingly supplied.

A :24.48 third quarter translated into a six-furlong split of 1:09.44, and Newgate was the first to try and crack Fierceness. But his bid approaching the quarter pole never materialized into a true run at the leader.

Just behind the top two, Forever Young had vacated the rail and was executing a deft slice between the retreating Derma Sotogake and the going-nowhere Arthur's Ride.

But the most visually arresting blur on the far outside was Sierra Leone, who hit full flight and was zeroing in on Fierceness after a :25.61 fourth-quarter split that equated to 1:35.05 for the mile.

Initially it seemed as if Sierra Leone would collar Fierceness with little resistance. But when headed, Fierceness put up a decent fight between the eighth and sixteenth poles to hold second.

Forever Young was closing the gap late, but he had too much work to do to narrow the margin to anything close to what he and Sierra Leone had sparred through in the Derby, and he had to settle, yet again, for third.

The Sierra Leone-Fierceness-Forever Young trifecta marked the first time since 2014 that sophomores swept the first three spots in the Classic. (That Classic 10 years ago was ultra-impressive for 3-year-olds, who, led by Bayern, captured the first six placings.)

Sierra Leone's closing final quarter through the stretch was :25.73. He won by 1 1/2 lengths in 2:00.78–a 112 Beyer Speed Figure, the colt's career best by three points.

Still, none of that final-time numerology explains the story of the 2024 Classic as emphatically as that record :44.96 half mile.

Not only was it the fastest fraction for the first half mile in the history of the Classic, it was the fastest by more than a full half-second. The previous mark was :45.47, established in the 2022 Classic won by the pace-pressing Flightline.

Interestingly, based on opening half-mile times alone, the Classic has been consistently trending faster in its early stages.

In 40 previous editions of the race before this year, on only eight occasions has the first half-mile of the Classic been clocked below 46 seconds.

Chronologically, it first occurred in 1984 (won by Wild Again), 1990 (Unbridled), 1992 (A.P. Indy), 1999 (Cat Thief) and 2007 (Curlin).

But between 2021 and 2024–in Classics won by Knicks Go, Flightline, White Abarrio and now Sierra Leone–the opening half has been at least :45.77 or faster for every running.